Fed Day Arrives: AI Credit Stress, Anthropic's Trillion-Dollar IPO, and Bitcoin's $80K Line

Welcome to Stock Market Today — your market briefing with actionable insights on stocks, bonds, crypto, and the events moving markets. Let's get into it. FOMC meeting is underway right now, decision drops tomorrow. CME FedWatch has odds at ninety percent for a hold, with December hike odds near eighty percent. The real story is credit, not rates. JPMorgan's flagging AI-linked credit default swaps blowing out — one infrastructure borrower now pricing in better than fifty percent default odds over five years. That's Lehman-era signaling. Elon Musk echoed it, warning neocloud financing is drying up fast. CalPERS already made its move — the pension giant cut Magnificent Seven exposure by twenty-six percent in the first half, rotating into private equity. Watch for more institutional de-risking into earnings this week from Microsoft and Amazon. Anthropic just filed for an IPO, targeting somewhere between one and a half and two trillion dollars in valuation, pricing expected next month. Semiconductor names popped on the filing — Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron all moved higher in pre-market. UBS is telling clients AI stocks can't ignore valuation math anymore with rates this elevated — diversify out of pure-play tech exposure. Bitcoin's sitting right around eighty thousand dollars, chopping after dipping below that level overnight. ETFs just clawed back inflows Monday after bleeding over seven hundred million across two sessions. Galaxy's calling this an accumulation zone, pointing to long-term holders going dormant. On the other side, Jason Calacanis is calling for fifty-seven thousand within a year, urging a rotation into AI plays instead. One more for the tape — Ripple just got final OCC approval for its national trust bank, deepening the stablecoin-bank integration trend. Oil's pulled back toward one hundred one as Iran diplomacy cools tensions. Every headline today is a tell — read it right or get left behind. You've got five minutes to find the trade nobody saw coming, or you're just another voice in the crowd. That wraps your market intel — trade smart out there. For deeper insights and real-time analysis, visit capitalcopilot dot i o.